BeschreibungA new element in the European development of transport telematics is the use of information, communication and satellite navigation systems not only in the classical goods and passenger transportation area like sea, rail and air navigation, but increasingly in individual road transport. European car makers want to grab a piece of the telematics pie by equipping newly produced cars with satellite-supported telematic systems themselves. The scope of this paper is to model the diffusion of satellite-supported telematic systems in passenger cars and forecast their adoption in the market. Five European car makers supplied their data on European (EU 15) sales of this innovation from 1994 to 2003. The number of adopters is measured as the stock of satellite-supported telematic cars in use. The market potential is seen as the current total stock of luxury and middle class cars. Due to the short observation period we pool the series assuming the same parameters within a group of car makers. The market shares are kept constant. We detect a group of telematic pioneers, followers and laggards. The forecasts of the stock of cars fitted with telematics, replacement sales, and new and total sales are discussed. Two types of models are considered: The Bass model and a generalized version of the linearized Gompertz function. The models are checked among others for their consistency with respect to the replacement demand showing that the Bass model describes a plausible future sales development in case of overshooting behaviour whereas the Gompertz sales paths are monotonously increasing.
|12 Juni 2005 → 15 Juni 2005
|25th International Symposium on Forecasting
- Nicht definiert