Analyzing the impact of socio-demographic, spatial and travel attributes on transport modal choice in the Bodensee-Alpenrhein region

Diese Masterarbeit ist eine empirische Studie der Einflussfaktoren auf Alltagsmobilität in der Bodensee-Alpenrhein Region. Diese grenzüberschreitende Region ist in vielen Gebieten durch eine hohe Zersiedelung und eine starke Abhängigkeit vom Privat-Pkw geprägt. Die Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit der Auswirkung der sozioökonomischen und geographischen Faktoren sowie der Reise-Attribute auf die Verkehrsmittelwahl. Das Ziel der Arbeit besteht darin, einen differenzierten Überblick über das Reiseverhalten in der Region zu geben. Dies soll anhand zwei Forschungsfragen erreicht werden; welche Faktoren inwieweit Einfluss auf die Verkehrsmittelwahl in den Teil-Regionen haben und wie Unterschiede in den Teil-Regionen zu differenziertem Reiseverhalten in der Gesamt-Region führen. Die Arbeit basiert zum Einen auf der statistischen Analyse von Reisemerkmalen und zum Anderen auf der Anwendung des Multinomial-Logit-Modells, ein Regressionsmodell, mit dem die Auswirkung jedes Merkmals auf die Verkehrsmittelwahl berechnet wird. Die Ergebnisse identifizieren drei Faktoren, die das Reiseverhalten stark beeinflussen, (i) der Autobesitz pro Haushalt (ii) der Zweck der Reise und (iii) das Alter. Zum Beispiel sinkt die Wahrscheinlichkeit, nachhaltige Fortbewegungsmittel zu wählen, je höher die Zahl der PKW pro Haushalt ausfällt. Jüngere Generationen nutzen häufiger öffentliche Verkehrsmittel als ältere. Bezüglich des Reisezwecks haben die meisten der Reisen in den schweizerischen und deutschen Teil-Regionen geschäftliche Gründe. Die Streusiedlungsstruktur und durchschnittlich weite Wegstrecken führen zur Bevorzugung des PKW in diesen Teil-Regionen. Dagegen dienen die meisten Reisen in Österreich der Freizeit und Erholung in ansprechender Landschaft. Daneben erleichtern die kompakte Siedlungsstruktur und geringere Reisedistanzen in dieser Teil-Region die Nutzung von Rad und Fuß. Nowadays, almost all countries have policies to promote the public transport usage to achieve a sustainable development in transportation sector. To this aim, analyzing the determinants of transport modal choice is essential to provide insights for policymakers to identify the potentials for changing the peoples travel behavior. The range of the factors which influence on the travel behavior is relatively broad. In addition to the spatial and socio-demographic factors such as urban form and income level of travelers, another important factor is the travel attributes such as the reason, distance and duration of travel. In this thesis, we analyze the transport modal choice in the Bodensee-Alpenrhein region. This region includes sub-regions in three countries including Austria, Germany, and Switzerland and it is characterized by high urban sprawl and strong dependency on the private car mode of transport. The main aim of this work is to provide a clear picture about the travel behavior in the region, and to evaluate the impact of spatial, socio-demographic and travel attributes on the transport mode choice. The main research question is to identify which factors, and to what extent, influence on the modal choice in each sub-region and the whole region. In addition, how differences in these factors in sub-regions result in the dissimilarity of travel behavior in the whole region. In order to address the research question, the main approach consists of two steps. First, a statistical analysis is performed to investigate the statistical features of the travel behavior data. Then, we use a multinomial logit model as a regression model to calculate the impact of each attribute on the modal choice. This model calculates the probability of choosing each transport mode by people as a function of spatial, socio-demographic and travel attributes. This regression model is defined based on the utility theory which assumes that each traveler prefers to choose a transport mode which has a higher utility for her. Three main transportation modes including car (PKW), public transport (PT) and bike or walk (W-B) are considered in this study. In each sub region as well as the whole region, three indicators which have significant impact on the modal choice are the car ownership, reason of travel and the age of traveler, respectively. Increasing number of car owners in each household results in the decreasing usage of public transport and biking or walking. For example, decreasing the number of cars per household from two cars to one car will result in 2.2 times more usage of public transport over car in German sub-region, 2.9 times more usage of public transport over car in Austrian sub-region and 1.3 times more usage of public transport over car in Swiss sub-region. The regression analysis for the reason of travel indicator shows that travelers in the Austrian sub-region with business reason choose public transport over car almost 2.3 times more than travelers with leisure reason, whereas travelers in German sub-region with business reason use public transport over car 30% less than travelers with leisure reason. Age profile reveals different results for similar age categories in different sub-regions. In German and Swiss sub-regions young generation uses public transport 2.9 times more than senior generation, whereas in Austrian sub-region young generation use public transport 5 times more than seniors. The results show that the sub-regions develop along their own lines and principles and they indicate relatively different travel behavior patterns. The first reason is that each sub-region has its own public transport infrastructures which is relatively different than others. For instance, Switzerland has one of the best railway networks in the world and Vorarlberg has a very good bus network, while public transport in the German sub-region is less developed. The second reason is that the transport policy in each of these countries is relatively different than others which creates a nonhomogeneous developing transport policy in this region. Third reason is the differences in landscape, culture, life style, and people´s attitude toward leisure and free time activities. For instance, due to the numerous mountains in the Austrian sub-region, cities agglomerate along valley and there is relatively short distance between them. Besides, most of travels in this sub region are done for leisure reasons such as skiing and hiking in the nearby mountains and it is easier to reach by car. Whereas the cities in the Swiss sub-region have smaller size and there is relatively longer distance between them. Besides, this sub-region is highly industrialized and majority of travels are done for business (job) reason. Therefore, an integrated transport policy and concept is required in order to promote more sustainable transport modes in this region.