Initial comparative analysis of model and peer review process for ERC starting grant proposals

This article discusses a statistical modelling approach for inferring attributes of `frontier research´ in peer-reviewed research proposals submitted to the European Research Council (ERC). The first step briefly revisit the underlying concept, approach, and the defined indicators to proxy aspects of frontier research, which are based on proposal texts as well as scientometric and bibliometric data of ERC grant applications. Based on the set of indicators, the second step models the decision probability of a proposal to be accepted. It compares outcomes between the model and peer review decision, with the goal to determine the influence of different frontier research aspects in the peer review process. In an initial attempt, we demonstrate and discuss in a proof-of-concept approach a data sample of about 10% of all proposals submitted to the ERC for starting grants in the year 2009. It shows the feasibility and usefulness of the modelling approach. Ultimately, the concept is aiming at testing new methods for monitoring the effectiveness of peer review processes, by taking a scientometric perspective of research proposals that reach beyond publication and citation statistics.