Modelling the Potential Distribution of Three Climate Zonal Tree Species for Present and Future Climate in Hungary

Norbert Móricz, Ervin Asztovits, Borbála Gálos, Imre Berki, Attila Eredics, Wolfgang Loibl

Publikation: Beitrag in FachzeitschriftArtikelBegutachtung

Abstract

The potential distribution and composition rate of beech, sessile oak and Turkey oak were investigated for present and future climates (2036-2065 and 2071-2100) in Hungary. Membership functions were defined using the current composition rate (percentage of cover in forest compartments) of the tree species and the long-term climate expressed by the Ellenberg quotient to model the present and future tree species distribution and composition rate. The simulation results using the regional climate model REMO showed significant decline of beech and sessile oak in Hungary during the 21st century. By the middle of the century only about 35% of the present beech and 75% of the sessile oak stands will remain above their current potential distribution limit. By the end of the century beech forests may almost disappear from Hungary and sessile oak will also be found only along the Southwest border and in higher mountain regions. On the contrary the present occurrences of Turkey oak will be almost entirely preserved during the century however its distribution area will shift to the current sessile oak habitats
OriginalspracheEnglisch
Seitenumfang11
FachzeitschriftActa Silvatica & Lingaria Hungaria
PublikationsstatusVeröffentlicht - 2014

Research Field

  • Ehemaliges Research Field - Energy

Schlagwörter

  • potential tree species distribution / composition rate / beech / sessile oak / Turkey oak

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