Second Order PRA Model for Ocular Laser Damage

Dose-response curves characterize the variability of damage thresholds within the population under consideration. In probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) for laser injury, a log-normal cumulative distribution is usually used as dose-response curve to calculate the probability for injury as function of radiant exposure. However, experimental uncertainty as well as a different variability within the group under consideration can influence the shape of the dose-response curve. Previously, to our knowledge, dose response curves were used in PRA for laser injury without considering uncertainties. We have developed a second order probabilistic risk analysis model, with accounts for uncertainties of the dose response curve by defining distributions for the slope and ED-50 values of the dose response curve and using Monte-Carlo simulation.