Wiring up multiple layers of innovation ecosystems: Contemplations from personal health systems foresight

Many foresight exercises have been undertaken with the aim of improving the performance of innovation ecosystems. These ecosystems extend across different layers including the organisational, sectoral, regional, national and international dimensions. The interconnectedness of these layers has not have received much attention in foresight literature and practise. However, both the development and diffusion of innovations are subject to framework conditions not only within, but also across, multiple layers of innovation ecosystems. The design and management of foresight exercises are thus liable to addressing and serving these different layers- especially when the goal is to improve the performance and impact of such "interconnected and interdependent systems". This paper develops further the concept of `multi-layered foresight´ by addressingmultiple layers of innovation ecosystems in foresight design and management.We explore the implications of applying this type of foresight on improving systemic understanding, enhancing stakeholder networking and developing innovation capacities across the layers of ecosystems. The theoretical underpinnings are tested through a case study of the `PersonalHealth Systems (PHS) Foresight´ project. This project explored international future developments in the health sector, which is characterised bymultiple disciplines, communities of practise, technologies, and geographical contexts. In the case of PHS the emerging innovation ecosystems are often conditioned by fragmented development communities, major barriers tomarket development, and duplication of efforts. The project combined analytical, social networking, online envisioning and scenario buildingmethods to address complexity and create impact inmultiple layers. Possible futures for personal health systemswere explored through intense dialogueswith stakeholders and a desirable future state was sketched through the success scenariomethodology. The implications and strategic issues for different groups of stakeholders were outlined, enabling these s