Futures of Artificial Intelligence – Implications for Europe's R&I Ecosystem and Policy

Description

Artificial intelligence is reshaping Europe’s research, innovation and industrial landscape, yet its future trajectory remains highly uncertain. This presentation introduces the results of the European Commission’s Foresight on Demand study The Futures of Artificial Intelligence: Implications for Europe’s R&I Ecosystem and Policy, which combines state-of-the-art analysis, technology taxonomy development, industrial adoption mapping, expert consultation and scenario-based foresight to explore plausible AI futures for Europe.

The presentation first reviews current developments in AI, highlighting rapid advances in foundation models, increasing private investment and the emergence of a multidimensional taxonomy that captures AI technologies, capabilities and application domains. It then examines patterns of AI adoption across European sectors before presenting five contrasting scenarios for 2040, ranging from a “Safety First” Europe and a uniquely European AI paradigm to a globally dominant AGI ecosystem and a potential AI winter. Rather than predicting a single future, these scenarios illustrate alternative pathways and expose critical uncertainties shaping Europe’s strategic choices.

Building on this foresight exercise, the presentation identifies three overarching strategic opportunities for European policy: strengthening anticipatory governance capacities to cope with persistent uncertainty; enhancing competitiveness through broader and deeper AI adoption across sectors; and developing a distinct European pathway for AI based on trust, sustainability and the public interest. Across these priorities, the presentation argues for adaptive governance, continuous foresight and monitoring, AI literacy, critical assessment of technological hype, robust public-private ecosystems, sector-specific innovation, and investments in human capabilities, sustainability and science diplomacy. It concludes that Europe’s long-term competitiveness will depend less on competing in a global race for ever-larger models than on its ability to shape trustworthy, socially beneficial and resilient AI ecosystems aligned with European values.

Period	2026
Held at	Science Europe, Belgium
Degree of Recognition	International