Multi-level context scenarios for future EU research and innovation policies

Description

Several recent developments strongly suggest that a new ‘world order’ is evolving, replacing the relatively short period characterised by US dominance, which, in turn, followed the bipolar world (the cold war between the blocs led by the US and the USSR) that existed for several decades after WW2. This new world order will be a multipolar one, but we cannot know yet how these ‘poles’ would behave. Thus, it is an imperative to consider several options. To do so, the paper proposes exploring three different types of multipolar worlds: A) ‘poles’ genuinely collaborating when tackling global challenges, B) antagonistic 'poles' that are nevertheless willing to engage in limited co-operation, and C) at least one ‘pole’ is openly hostile towards other one(s).
The EU may also evolve along different paths, and thus these multipolar scenarios at the global level are enriched by exploring two variants of how the EU may evolve in each of the global scenarios. The two variants of EU development we consider are i) a dynamic and resilient EU and ii) a destabilised and thus vulnerable EU.
Considering these two futures for the EU in each of the three global multipolar scenarios, yields a set of six scenarios in total. Due to the explicit consideration of multiple development paths at both the global and EU levels, we obtain a multi-level architecture of scenarios. It provides more nuanced insights on the possible contexts for the EU reserch and innovation policies, and thus these policies can be underpinned by more relevant analyses, considering several options in a systematic and transparent way.

Period	13 Sept 2024
Event title	18th Biennial Conference of EACES, "Tides of change: Comparative economic systems in the era of geo-economic fragmentation"
Event type	Conference
Location	Belgrade, SerbiaShow on map
Degree of Recognition	International