The infinite spiral of disaster management: Spatio-temporal modeling aspects in the context of reducing residual risk

Description

The presented work focuses on conceptualizing the ultimate goal in disaster management, i.e. reduction of future risks and impacts. Disaster management has widely been regarded as a cyclic multi-stage process, ideally starting with risk analysis, followed by mitigation efforts, and rounded off by a response phase after a disaster strikes. Risk assessment as a crucial starting point for risk reduction is composed of hazard and vulnerability analysis. Both aspects are highly sensitive to spatial and temporal variation. The occurrence of a hazardous event does not necessarily entail negative effects. Variable patterns of vulnerability determine where and when a mere natural event potentially turns into a disaster. Spatio-temporal modeling of human exposure (e.g. daytime/nighttime, weekends, seasonal variations) constitutes essential information for building appropriate adaptation strategies and thus reducing the residual risk. Both mitigation and response actions in fact should aim at reducing overall future risk. This is obvious for the mitigation phase, but not less important for the response phase, where well-organized search and rescue actions and also coordinated recovery and rehabilitation support can dramatically reduce social impacts. With all different stages featuring spatially and temporally variable components the described well-established concept can be further elaborated by figuratively unrolling the cycle and moving to an infinite disaster management spiral. Learning from past disasters and corresponding adaptation of disaster management processes is essential in minimizing impacts of future events. It is however impossible to achieve zero risk. The residual risks keep the spiral on the loop despite continuous improvements in management practices.

Period	12 Apr 2011 → 16 Apr 2011
Event title	AAG Annual Meeting - Special Symposium on 'Space-Time Integration in Geography and GIScience
Event type	Other
Degree of Recognition	International