A concept for Inferring "Frontier Research" in Research Project Proposals

This paper discusses a concept for inferring attributes of `frontier research´ in peer-reviewed research project proposals under the European Research Council (ERC) scheme. The concept serves two purposes: 1) to conceptualize and define, automatically extract, and comparatively assess attributes of frontier research in proposals; and 2) to build and compare outcomes of a statistical model with the review decision in order to obtain further insight and reflect upon the influence of frontier research in the peer-review process. To this end, indicators (including scientific `novelty´, `risk´, or interdisciplinarity´) across scientific disciplines and in accord with the strategic definition of frontier research by the Council are elaborated, exploiting textual proposal information and other bibliometric data of applicants. Subsequently, a concept is discussed to measure ex-post the influence of indicators on the decision probability (or, alternatively, the odds) of a proposal to be accepted. The final analysis of the classification and decision probabilities compares and contrasts review decisions in order to, e.g., statistically explain congruence between frontier research and review decision or reveal differential representation of attributes. Ultimately, the concept is aiming at a methodology that monitors the effectiveness and efficiency of peer-review processes.