Arterial stiffness and incident chronic kidney disease: a large population-based cohort study

Background/aims Evidence from large population-based cohorts as to the association of arterial stiffness and incident chronic kidney disease (CKD) is mixed. This large population-based study aimed to investigate whether arterial stiffness, assessed oscillometrically, was associated with incident CKD. Methods The study population comprised 4838 participants from the Vitamin D Assessment (ViDA) Study without known CKD (mean +/- SD age = 66 +/- 8). Arterial stiffness was assessed from 5 April, 2011 to 6 November, 2012 by way of aortic pulse wave velocity, estimated carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity, and aortic pulse pressure. Incident CKD was determined by linkage to national hospital discharge registers. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the risk of CKD in relation to chosen arterial stiffness measures over the continuum and quartiles of values. Results During a mean +/- SD follow-up of 10.5 +/- 0.4 years, 376 participants developed incident CKD. Following adjustment for potential confounders, aortic pulse wave velocity (hazard ratio (HR) per SD increase 1.69, 95% CI 1.45-1.97), estimated carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (HR per SD increase 1.84, 95% CI 1.54-2.19), and aortic pulse pressure (HR per SD increase 1.37, 95% CI 1.22-1.53) were associated with the incidence of CKD. The risk of incident CKD was, compared to the first quartile, higher in the fourth quartile of aortic pulse wave velocity (HR 4.72, 95% CI 2.69-8.27; P trend < 0.001), estimated carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (HR 4.28, 95% CI 2.45-7.50; P trend < 0.001) and aortic pulse pressure (HR 2.71, 95% CI 1.88-3.91; P trend < 0.001). Conclusions Arterial stiffness, as measured by aortic pulse wave velocity, estimated carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity, and aortic pulse pressure may be utilised in clinical practice to help identify people at risk of future CKD. Trial registration www.anzctr.org.au identifier:ACTRN12611000402943.