Decomposition and Simulation of Imbalance Costs for Intermittent Renewable Producers

Philipp Ortmann

doi:10.1109/EEM58374.2023.10161958

Decomposition and Simulation of Imbalance Costs for Intermittent Renewable Producers

Philipp Ortmann

Integrated Energy Systems

Research output: Chapter in Book or Conference Proceedings › Conference Proceedings with Oral Presentation › peer-review

Abstract

Generation from intermittent renewable sources is characterized by forecast errors which lead to imbalance costs for the respective plants. Imbalance costs may constitute a significant cost position for the respective generators and could be subject to further increase in light of ambitious deployment of intermittent renewables in many European countries.This work decomposes the driving factors for imbalance costs, undertakes analysis of historical data for Austria, presents a modelling approach to simulate imbalance costs and provides an outlook on the potential development in Austria. The simulation approach is based on the stochastic computation of the total imbalance and the modelling of renewable forecast errors generated from random draws against historically observed imbalance prices. It is shown that imbalance costs for solar and wind generators are expected to rise alongside the respective capacity additions.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Decomposition and Simulation of Imbalance Costs for Intermittent Renewable Producers
Pages	1-5
Number of pages	5
ISBN (Electronic)	979-8-3503-1258-4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM58374.2023.10161958
Publication status	Published - 3 Jul 2023
Event	19th International Conference on European Electricity Market, EEM - LUT University, Lappeenranta, Finland Duration: 6 Jun 2023 → 8 Jun 2023 Conference number: 19 https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/conhome/10161732/proceeding

Conference

Conference	19th International Conference on European Electricity Market, EEM
Abbreviated title	EEM
Country/Territory	Finland
City	Lappeenranta
Period	6/06/23 → 8/06/23
Internet address	https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/conhome/10161732/proceeding

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 7 Affordable and Clean Energy

Research Field

Flexibility and Business Models

Keywords

Renewable Energy Sources
Imbalance Costs
Renewable Forecast Errors

Access to Document

10.1109/EEM58374.2023.10161958

Cite this

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title = "Decomposition and Simulation of Imbalance Costs for Intermittent Renewable Producers",

abstract = "Generation from intermittent renewable sources is characterized by forecast errors which lead to imbalance costs for the respective plants. Imbalance costs may constitute a significant cost position for the respective generators and could be subject to further increase in light of ambitious deployment of intermittent renewables in many European countries.This work decomposes the driving factors for imbalance costs, undertakes analysis of historical data for Austria, presents a modelling approach to simulate imbalance costs and provides an outlook on the potential development in Austria. The simulation approach is based on the stochastic computation of the total imbalance and the modelling of renewable forecast errors generated from random draws against historically observed imbalance prices. It is shown that imbalance costs for solar and wind generators are expected to rise alongside the respective capacity additions.",

keywords = "Renewable Energy Sources, Imbalance Costs, Renewable Forecast Errors",

author = "Philipp Ortmann",

year = "2023",

month = jul,

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doi = "10.1109/EEM58374.2023.10161958",

language = "English",

isbn = "979-8-3503-2452-5",

pages = "1--5",

booktitle = "Decomposition and Simulation of Imbalance Costs for Intermittent Renewable Producers",

note = "19th International Conference on European Electricity Market, EEM, EEM ; Conference date: 06-06-2023 Through 08-06-2023",

url = "https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/conhome/10161732/proceeding",

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TY - GEN

T1 - Decomposition and Simulation of Imbalance Costs for Intermittent Renewable Producers

AU - Ortmann, Philipp

N1 - Conference code: 19

PY - 2023/7/3

Y1 - 2023/7/3

N2 - Generation from intermittent renewable sources is characterized by forecast errors which lead to imbalance costs for the respective plants. Imbalance costs may constitute a significant cost position for the respective generators and could be subject to further increase in light of ambitious deployment of intermittent renewables in many European countries.This work decomposes the driving factors for imbalance costs, undertakes analysis of historical data for Austria, presents a modelling approach to simulate imbalance costs and provides an outlook on the potential development in Austria. The simulation approach is based on the stochastic computation of the total imbalance and the modelling of renewable forecast errors generated from random draws against historically observed imbalance prices. It is shown that imbalance costs for solar and wind generators are expected to rise alongside the respective capacity additions.

AB - Generation from intermittent renewable sources is characterized by forecast errors which lead to imbalance costs for the respective plants. Imbalance costs may constitute a significant cost position for the respective generators and could be subject to further increase in light of ambitious deployment of intermittent renewables in many European countries.This work decomposes the driving factors for imbalance costs, undertakes analysis of historical data for Austria, presents a modelling approach to simulate imbalance costs and provides an outlook on the potential development in Austria. The simulation approach is based on the stochastic computation of the total imbalance and the modelling of renewable forecast errors generated from random draws against historically observed imbalance prices. It is shown that imbalance costs for solar and wind generators are expected to rise alongside the respective capacity additions.

KW - Renewable Energy Sources

KW - Imbalance Costs

KW - Renewable Forecast Errors

U2 - 10.1109/EEM58374.2023.10161958

DO - 10.1109/EEM58374.2023.10161958

M3 - Conference Proceedings with Oral Presentation

SN - 979-8-3503-2452-5

SP - 1

EP - 5

BT - Decomposition and Simulation of Imbalance Costs for Intermittent Renewable Producers

T2 - 19th International Conference on European Electricity Market, EEM

Y2 - 6 June 2023 through 8 June 2023

ER -

Decomposition and Simulation of Imbalance Costs for Intermittent Renewable Producers

Abstract

Conference

UN SDGs

Research Field

Keywords

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