Development of a Global Market Model for Renewable Hydrogen

Considerable effort has been devoted to obtaining price indications for renewable hydrogen, reflecting the high interest in this topic. The focus of the present work is to combine the existing fundamental data into a market model to find a cost-minimizing equilibrium solution for a hypothetical ideal global hydrogen market in 2030. By combining data on planned production projects with LCOH estimations, a supply curve can be constructed for each region. Demand for renewable hydrogen is derived from European regulation such as the Renewable Energy Directive. Equilibrium prices, including marginal costs for transportation via ship or pipeline, range between €2.5 and 3.5 €/kg. The cost-optimal solution of the model also provides insights on the most efficient production sites as well as transport flows. It is observable that anticipated European production is adequate to meet demand, with flows within Europe mainly occurring from the North to the South.