MOZERT - Modelling personal carbon allocation schemes and analysing their impacts in households and energy system

Introduction Ambitious targets in climate policy (especially in a long term Post-Kyoto perspective) are faced with disillusioning interim results, concerning actual achievement of these targets. It is therefore worth questioning whether the instruments applied in climate policy are sufficient. It appears to be necessary to become engaged in the development, discussion and analysis of novel approaches. One basic shortcoming of state-of-the-art climate policy is that clearly quantified targets for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions shall be achieved with "unpredictable" instruments (as investment incentives, standards, CO2 taxes or information campaigns), in the sense that the actual emissions reductions effect of these instruments is difficult to predict. From this point of view, certificate based instruments allowing a direct regulation (a cap) of the amount of emissions are attractive. The core objective of this paper is to carry out a qualitative analysis of different personal carbon allocation schemes (PCA schemes) and to present the methodology for simulating the impact of such schemes, the conceptual basis for a "climate-policy simulator". This simulator for investigating the effects of different personal carbon allocation schemes on the socio-economic situation of households and the energy system is currently being developed by a consortium financed by the Austrian "Klima & Energiefonds". Examples for the carbon allocation schemes considered include Cap & Share and TEQs, which can be applied complementary or alternatively to "classic" emission-trading, as currently implemented within the EU-ETS. Methodically we use a multi-paradigmatic modelling approach by combining top-down (System Dynamics Modelling) and bottom-up modelling approaches (TIMES energy system model, Agent-based Modelling).