On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues

Effie Amanatidou, Maurits Butter, Vicente Carabias, Totti Könnölä, Miriam Leis, Ozcan Saritas, Petra Schaper-Rinkel, Victor Van Rij

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Future-oriented technology analysis methods can play a significant role in enabling early warning signal detection and pro-active policy action which will help to better prepare policy- and decision-makers in today´s complex and inter-dependent environments. This paper analyses the use of different horizon scanning approaches and methods as applied in the Scanning for Emerging Science and Technology Issues project. A comparative analysis is provided as well as a brief evaluation the needs of policy-makers if they are to identify areas in which policy needs to be formulated. This paper suggests that the selection of the best scanning approaches and methods is subject to contextual and content issues. At the same time, there are certain issues which characterise horizon scanning processes, methods and results that should be kept in mind by both practitioners and policy-makers.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)208-221
Number of pages14
JournalScience and Public Policy
Volume39
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2012

Research Field

  • Former Research Field - Innovation Systems and Policy

Keywords

  • emerging science and technology issues; early warning signals; weak signals;

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