Scoring High: Analysis and Prediction of Viewer Behavior and Engagement in the Context of 2018 FIFA WC Live Streaming

Large-scale events pose severe challenges to live video streaming service providers, who need to cope with high, peaking viewer numbers and the resulting fluctuating resource demands, keeping high levels of Quality of Experience (QoE) to avoid end-user frustration and churn. In this paper, we analyze a unique dataset consisting of more than a million 2018 FIFA World Cup mobile live streaming sessions, collected at a large national public broadcaster. Different from previous work, we analyze QoE and user engagement as well as their interaction, in dependency to specific soccer match events, which have the potential to trigger flash crowds during a match. Flash crowds are a particular challenge to video service providers, since they cause sudden load peaks and consequently, the likelihood of quality problems. We further exploit the data to model viewer engagement over the course of a soccer match, and show that client counts follow very similar patterns of change across all matches. We believe that the analysis as well as the resulting models are valuable sources of insight for service providers, equipping them with tools for customer-centric resource and capacity management.